Opinion | US-China relations: Washington’s increased confidence bodes well for avoiding war

July has been a busy month for diplomacy between the United States and China, with trips to Beijing by former US Federal Reserve chair and current Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, as well as US climate ambassador and former secretary of state John Kerry. Also among the visitors was Henry Kissinger, the former secretary of state and national security adviser who helped initiate rapprochement between Washington and Beijing with his secret trip to China.

All these visits came after Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his first trip to China last month, a visit I called a triumph for the US. Washington seemed to overcome Beijing’s resistance to holding further talks and did so without having to give ground on its stance towards China.

These readings – which have the air of relief – are understandable given the levels of acrimony that both sides felt after the February incident of an alleged spy balloon from China being found in US airspace and subsequently shot down, bringing bilateral relations to a new low. This was despite the meeting between President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden in Bali last November, which was supposed to bring follow-up actions to establish guard rails for the US-China relationship.

Tensions escalated even further in late May when a Chinese fighter jet forced a US reconnaissance plane in international airspace near China to fly through its wake turbulence. Only a couple weeks later, a Chinese warship came within 150 yards (140 metres) of hitting a US destroyer during operations in the Taiwan Strait.

In the wake of these incidents, Defence Minister Li Shangfu reiterated China’s refusal to hold talks with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin. US officials have long been pushing for military-to-military talks, and both ministers were in Singapore at the Shangri-La Dialogue at the time of Li’s statement.