David Hutt

Opinion | Why ‘ironclad friend’ Cambodia might just be China’s model ally

As China’s partners face domestic troubles, Cambodia’s stability makes it an outlier. The relationship is more transactional than others, with no ideological bond – in many ways a good basis for regional cooperation

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David Hutt

Published: 8:15am, 12 Jul 2023

If Beijing stops and looks around, its friends aren’t doing too well. Its “no limits” comrade in Moscow just survived a mercenary mutiny with a column of a few thousand irregulars and ex-criminals almost strolling into the capital. And Iran is still reeling from protests after Mahsa Amini died in “morality police” custody last year.

The “anti-hegemonic” coalition of China, Russia and Iran, as former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski forecast in 1997 (what historian Niall Ferguson now calls the “axis of ill will”), looks increasingly fragile.

Nearer home, Laos is so badly in debt to China that Beijing is likely to have to write off billions of dollars at some point – not a great look for the export of its infrastructure-led development model. Myanmar’s junta wants Beijing to offer international cover as it perpetuates civil war, but also wants to weaken its dependency on China through engagement with India and Russia. Pakistan is, as the Economist put it, in “perma-crisis”.

Whatever inroads China made in Thailand and the Philippines have hit a dead end. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr has returned the country to its pro-Western agenda, while a coalition set to take power in Bangkok next month is expected to be more pro-US.

That makes Cambodia, an “ironclad friend”, something of an outlier. It often looks like the least troubled of China’s closest Asian partners and usually delivers only good news. To be the ambassador in Phnom Penh must be one of the easiest jobs for a Chinese diplomat. Cambodia isn’t badly in hock; national debt was just 33.7 per cent of gross domestic product last year.

It has close trading relations with Western nations, its main export partners, allowing Chinese companies in the country to make handsome profits. In the first quarter of this year, China had a US$2.2 billion trade surplus with Cambodia. Its housing market often resembles a bubble waiting to burst, but it’s proven sturdy enough for the Chinese who want to invest there for their retirement.