Christopher Tang

The View | As the US-China tech war escalates loudly, no one wins

For decades, the US and China engaged in strategic ambiguity to keep their relationship stable, but both are now openly targeting global leadership

By ramping up their rhetoric and acting with explicit intent, the two countries are not only inflicting economic pain but also increasing the chances of a hot war

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Semiconductor equipment is displayed at the American Tec booth during Semicon China, a trade fair for the semiconductor industry, in Shanghai on June 29. China and the United States continue to ramp up restrictions on each other in their ongoing tech war, with China’s restrictions on rare earth exports the latest move. Photo: Reuters

Christopher Tang

Published: 3:00am, 6 Jul 2023

During her visit to Beijing, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to stress the need for both countries to “responsibly manage” their relationship, “communicate directly about areas of concern and work together to address global challenges”. Although her visit is well-intentioned, it will not be a panacea for the current conflicts between the United States and China. Instead, the visit represents a positive initial step, providing the two countries with an opportunity to reassess and develop more effective strategies for peaceful engagement.

For decades, both the US and China used a policy of strategic ambiguity to keep their relationship stable. But in recent years, President Xi Jinping declared his dream of China becoming the world’s “leading power”. At the same time, US President Joe Biden wants to ensure the US will continue to “lead the world”.

These publicly declared intentions led some scholars to speculate that this conflict is akin to a “Thucydides Trap” that could result in war. However, other scholars found this trap analogy to be inaccurate because the characteristics of the US and China are very different from those of Athens and Sparta. Therefore, the threat of war between the US and China can be avoided if both parties can re-engage each other to ensure prosperity and peace.

Declaring intentions explicitly is risky, but revealing each party’s action plan openly is dangerous. As Sun Tzu wrote in The Art of War, “The spot where we intend to fight must not be made known; for then the enemy will have to prepare against a possible attack at several different points.”

Besides enabling your opponent to counter-attack, making your action plan known publicly binds you and limits your flexibility to change course when your original plan is ineffective. This tit-for-tat exchange between the US and China is escalating with no end in sight.

Instead of engaging in friendship-building activities, the political rhetoric of the two sides has ratcheted up tensions since former president Donald Trump started the trade war against China in 2018. The Biden administration’s current explicitly stated strategies include keeping in place Trump’s tariffs on imports from China, imposing restrictions on the export of chips from the US, and expanding the US military presence in Taiwan.