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Ukraine war
OpinionComment
Andrew Hammond
Andrew Hammond

Opinion | Wagner mutiny highlights Putin’s weakness, but outcome of Ukraine war remains unpredictable

  • If Putin remains in power and the Russian war effort continues apace, a war of attrition looks likely, although there is a slim but significant window of opportunity for peace talks as casualties rise
  • However, the worst-case scenario of further escalation of violence has not been closed off

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Members of the Wagner group stand on the balcony of the circus building in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on June 24. Yevgeny Prigozhin, commander of the mercenary group, had ordered his troops to march on Moscow but abruptly reached a deal with the Kremlin to go into exile and sounded the retreat on June 25. Photo: AFP
Andrew Hammond
As the Ukraine war nears its 500th day, the key issue on the minds of international policymakers is what impact the extraordinary recent mutiny of the Wagner mercenary group will have on the conflict.
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The uprising, which exposed the growing internal fissures within the country, will do nothing to strengthen Russia’s already faltering war efforts. Yet its wider impact, including for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hold on power, will not be fully clear for weeks to come. This despite some instant assessments – including that of former Russian prime minister Mikhail Kasyanov – that this is the “beginning of the end”.

Putin’s political longevity has been remarkable in the last quarter of a century. While he is clearly down and badly weakened, he cannot yet be counted out.
One factor that will assist Putin is support from foreign countries, including staunch partners such as China and other friendly nations such as Turkey. China’s foreign ministry said on June 25 that the country supported Russia in “protecting national stability”. Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang met Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko that day.
The Wagner mutiny comes at a time when the initiative in the war was already very much with Ukraine as it moved forward with its counteroffensive. Kyiv will hope it can make even bigger gains than it had previously hoped for if disarray sets in more widely among pro-Moscow forces.

If Putin remains in power, which seems most likely for the foreseeable future, and the Russian war effort continues apace, the most likely scenario remains the conflict following the trajectory of a war of attrition, albeit with significant twists and turns. This seems especially likely while both sides are still prepared to expend massive resources.

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