Opinion | China should tread carefully in Afghanistan or risk becoming the latest addition to ‘graveyard of empires’

It has been almost two years since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, which saw the United States and its allies leave in chaotic scenes after 20 years of supposed nation-building.

Nature abhors a vacuum, and it has been one China is happy to fill. When Kabul fell to the Taliban, it did not go unnoticed in Western circles that China kept its embassy open, promising at the time, according to the Taliban spokesperson, to “beef up” relations with the new regime.

Afghanistan offers China several opportunities. A stable and receptive government in Kabul could provide a chance to invest in lucrative infrastructure, energy and mining projects in the resource-rich but underdeveloped country. For example, in January the Taliban signed a contract with Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas, a subsidiary of China National Petroleum Group, to extract oil from the Amu Darya basin.

China has long seen Afghanistan as a future member of its Belt and Road Initiative. The initiative, launched in 2013, aims to connect Asia to Africa and Europe through Central and South Asia.

Earlier this month, China and Pakistan agreed to extend infrastructure projects in the initiative to Afghanistan, potentially opening the country up to billions in investment opportunities. This includes a decision to extend the US$60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor to the landlocked country.

Diplomatically, China has welcomed Taliban representatives and encouraged the international community to scrap sanctions and better interact with the regime. However, official recognition still seems off the table for the time being.