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India
OpinionComment
Abishur Prakash
Abishur Prakash

Opinion | Is India doomed to chair the most impotent G20 in modern times?

  • In the face of global crises, from a brewing nuclear arms race to recession and unrest, the G20 has been paralysed by rivalries and distracted by domestic challenges
  • Can India, whose reputation is at stake, lead a rebirth or will the grouping crumble and be swept aside?

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A man walks past a G20 display in Lucknow, India, on February 12. Under its presidency, India is expected to hold more than 200 meetings in the run-up to the G20 summit. Photo: AP
Abishur Prakash

As India prepares to host the Group of 20 in September, it might be the “last supper” for the grouping. G20, the poster child of globalisation, is plagued by a myriad of crises – none of which it can solve. Or can it?

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Let’s start with nuclear weapons. A new nuclear arms race has begun, with Russia planning to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Poland might be next, hosting American nukes. In the Indo-Pacific, South Korea and the United States are discussing joint control of nuclear weapons (with Japan having explored a similar idea).
As nuclear weapons spread, the world’s stability is at stake. Projections from Rutgers University found that nuclear war between India and Pakistan could cause global volumes of food, animals and fisheries to drop by 90 per cent.

Short of the West ending support for Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to abandon the plan for nukes in Belarus. And, as long as the North Korean (and Chinese) threat exists, South Korea and Japan will want more deterrence.

So, the G20 can be a lame duck and do nothing as countries play “nuclear chess”. Or India can deliver an ultimatum: G20 nations will ban trade with any country fuelling nuclear proliferation (that is, stationing nukes outside their borders or sharing them). Does India have the guts to do this?

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Then there is the next economic crisis. As reverberations from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse spread, Australia and New Zealand Bank CEO Shayne Elliott has warned of a global recession. And with war in Ukraine hard on the heels of the Covid-19 pandemic, the World Bank has floated the idea of a “lost decade” in global growth.
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