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Opinion | A German anti-China policy? Don’t hold your breath
- German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock may be taking a hard line on China, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz will have the final say
- Scholz is aware that the economic reality simply does not allow him to meet Baerbock and her party’s demands on China
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Those who followed German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s visit to China might believe that Sino-German relations are deteriorating. However, Baerbock’s stance on China by no means represents the entire German government. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will have the final say on China, and he has already indicated that a paradigm shift in this regard is unlikely.
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Partner, competitor or systemic rival? Since taking office in December 2021, Baerbock has emphasised that she seeks to shape a value-based foreign policy and therefore remains highly critical of China.
During her visit last week, Baerbock said China seeks to define its own international rules while criticising Beijing’s nebulous attitude towards Russia’s illegal war, military escalation in the Taiwan Strait and the human rights situation in the country.
Of course, the human rights situation, and especially China’s reluctance to use its influence on Russia to end the war, warrant criticism. But geopolitics is not shaped by idealism, and Germany, as the de facto leader of the European Union, has an overriding interest in remaining economically strong – an undertaking that simply will not work without China.
Its economic success over the past two decades has been primarily based on affordable energy from Russia, security guarantees from Washington and a vast export market in China, in addition to the positive characteristics of the German people.
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However, the war in Ukraine, former US president Donald Trump’s policies and now what Berlin perceives as Beijing’s increasingly totalitarian stance have laid bare the geopolitical contradictions of these arrangements. Germany has learned its lesson in relation to Russia, but it has not become more independent regarding security.
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