Opinion | Europe’s diplomatic dance with China won’t foil Xi-Putin friendship

Three senior European leaders have travelled thousands of miles to Beijing in recent days to see Chinese President Xi Jinping, yet the focus of their discussions lie much closer to home in Ukraine.

The backdrop to Xi’s meetings with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and French President Emmanuel Macron is the ongoing conflict. Russia’s invasion has left Europe, and the wider West, including the United States and Canada, more united than in years.

With US-China relations at rock bottom, Beijing must be keen to avoid a long-lasting public spat with the European Union, which is one of China’s biggest trading partners. Indeed, one driver of Xi’s 12-point “peace plan” released in February, which was focused more on broad principles than detailed ideas, is softening European and broader international opinion about China’s stance on the conflict, rather than being a realistic blueprint for quickly resolving the conflict.

China’s deteriorating relationship with the US has given Europe more leverage. China is keen to revive discussions on the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, an accord agreed on in principle in December 2020, but which has not yet been ratified by the European Parliament owing to growing concerns in Brussels about Beijing’s behaviour.

This window of opportunity will be seized on by Macron, in particular, given his desire for Europe to bolster what he calls its “strategic autonomy” vis-à-vis other global powers. Macron is accompanied on his trip by Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna, plus heads of about 50 firms including Veolia, EDF and Airbus.

While Europe wants to maintain engagement with China, this will be much harder if Chinese President Xi Jinping continues to stand by Russia, especially if Beijing intensifies support for Moscow on Ukraine. Hence, von der Leyen has said the 27-member bloc should focus on “de-risking” diplomatically and economically, without “decoupling” completely from Beijing.