Advertisement
Opinion | As Ukraine war drags on, why not give China’s peace plan a chance?
- Suspicious of Beijing’s motives, the West has dismissed the plan for having no actionable solutions
- But with leverage over Moscow and skin in the game, there is no other country better placed to mediate
Reading Time:4 minutes
Why you can trust SCMP
28
There are basically two ways that wars end: in an outright victory or with a negotiated settlement. After a year of fighting in Ukraine, there is a growing consensus that neither side can secure a total victory any time soon.
Advertisement
Russia appears to lack the capability to overcome Ukraine while Western support continues. But Russian forces have dug in and it looks increasingly unlikely that Ukraine can eject them, even with better kit from the West.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will not give up – he sees defeat as an existential threat and has the resources to fight a prolonged war of attrition. And there remains the nightmarish possibility he could reach for the nuclear option if backed into a corner.
Meanwhile, sanctions have not crippled the Russian economy, and there is no sign of a serious effort to topple Putin. Any putsch is more likely to come from the ultranationalist right, and unlikely to end the fighting.
The longer the war drags on, the more suffering it causes. Odds are, we will be marking another grim anniversary next year – and who knows how many after that. Countless people will be killed, wounded or made homeless. Disrupted flows of grain and energy will worsen hunger in vulnerable regions and aggravate global inflation, feeding instability.
Advertisement
If neither side can prevail, the only way the bloodshed can end is at the negotiating table. Granted, that too seems unlikely – but not impossible.
Advertisement