Opinion | To avert war over Taiwan, a Sino-US joint declaration may be needed

US Air Force General Mike Minihan made headlines when he said in a recently leaked memo that his “gut” told him the United States and China would go to war over Taiwan by 2025. Last year, The Economist named the Taiwan Strait the most dangerous place on Earth.

The case of a Chinese balloon in American airspace has fuelled hysteria in the US over Chinese aggression. Taiwan has become the most intense hotspot in US-China relations.

With People’s Liberation Army aircraft flying closer and more frequently to Taiwan, talk of war is pervasive. Taiwan recently extended mandatory military training for its young men from four months to a year. A book by a retired Taiwanese general, advocating asymmetric warfare to defend the island – essentially calling for urban guerilla warfare – was reportedly well received by US military experts and strategists.

Let’s have no illusions: war in the Taiwan Strait is possible. Beijing has never renounced the use of force to achieve reunification. While peaceful means are still Beijing’s preferred policy, the situation is changing.

The US is responsible for the growing tension in the Taiwan Strait. Increased arm sales, congressional action like the Taiwan Policy Act and the Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act, high-profile visits such as those by then-House speaker Nancy Pelosi in August last year and deputy assistant secretary of defence Michael Chase in February, are seen by Beijing as blatant interference in China’s internal affairs.