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Opinion | South China Sea: China faces hard choices as US support for rivals grows

  • Enforcing its claims harder risks international opprobrium and war while easing off to focus on commercial resource-sharing deals risks domestic criticism
  • But not choosing is also counterproductive as US military ties with other Asian countries continue to deepen

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Illustration: Craig Stephens

China is facing a point of decision in the South China Sea. Supported by the US, rival claimants Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam are resisting China’s attempts to implement its historic claim over much of the South China Sea.

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They are responding to China’s intimidation and harassment by building up their military presence and capability, and some have enhanced cooperation with the United States. The most significant recent example is the Philippine agreement to allow the US more troops and equipment on its soil.

As Liu Weidong, a Sino-US affairs expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, China needs a long-term plan to counter the deepening military ties between the US and other Asian countries. But China’s options are limited and each has significant pros and cons.

China has two types of claims in the South China Sea – one to the features, some of which lie below high tide on others’ legitimate continental shelves, and one to jurisdiction over the waters and their resources. China’s territorial claims to high-tide features and their 12 nautical mile territorial seas are particularly difficult to resolve.

So this analysis focuses on its jurisdictional claim that has been found illegal by an international court.

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The easiest and more likely option is to resist harder. China could step up enforcement of its claims, including to resource rights in others’ exclusive economic zones, by using its “maritime militia” and coastguard to harass other claimants’ petroleum exploration, back up its illegal fishermen and swarm the area.
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