South China Morning Post
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The remnants of a Chinese surveillance balloon drift above the Atlantic Ocean, just off the coast of South Carolina, on February 4. The incident has raised concerns about further deterioration in US-China relations and the need for diplomatic guardrails to keep events from spiralling out of control. Photo: AP
Opinion
Sameed Basha
Sameed Basha

Spy balloon fallout shows urgent need for guardrails in US-China relationship

  • The blame game and domestic politics on both sides are preventing dialogue at time when it is needed more than ever
  • When crisis strikes, diplomatic channels must remain open with confidence-building measures and proper guardrails designed to prevent a global catastrophe
Sameed Basha
Sameed Basha
Why you can trust SCMP
China’s surveillance balloon fiasco in the United States is a potent reminder of needing guardrails to manage the ongoing competition between the two countries. President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden’s summit in November hoped to quell tensions between the superpowers by increasing channels of communication and dialogue.

However, the domestic response in both countries has exposed how internal dynamics in China and the US can affect their relationship during times of crisis. The ambiguity within China’s institutions and political structures has left Western experts speculating on who authorised the mission, drawing condemnation and criticism.

Meanwhile, the visibility of the balloon will become emblematic of the threat China poses to the US rules-based order, strengthening the arguments of hawks who demand rigid policies against China. This could cause the Biden administration to escalate tensions, especially in the lead-up to the 2024 US elections.
Unfortunately, this has come against an already downward trajectory in relations and a growing sense of US-China conflict. A leaked memo from four-star US Air Force General Mike Minihan warned officers to prepare for a clash with China as early as 2025.

Clearly, the idea of having guardrails has become more important. The onus should be on both countries to put forward institutionally driven de-escalatory measures to meet each other halfway.

For the US, this means not creating a forward operating base in the Northern Territory of Australia to support operations from Guam and refraining from making groupings such as Aukus and the Quad, which are seen as being meant to provoke China. Meanwhile, China can play its part by availing itself of opportunities for dialogue and engaging with the US instead of refusing to communicate, giving further credibility to war hawks.

02:34

Chinese balloon row: Joe Biden says US-China relations have not taken a big hit

Chinese balloon row: Joe Biden says US-China relations have not taken a big hit

A 2018 study by the Belfer Centre at Harvard University stated that if China were to de-escalate in the face of plausible threats by the US, citizens would not react positively to a leader who was willing to bargain.

This has links to the “century of humiliation”, which China experienced from 1839 to 1949. The country was forced to sign treaties with unfavourable terms and cede its territory, and this has shaped much of its current foreign policy and vision of how it wishes to be seen in the world.

Public opinion is needed to defend an ideology or a position, such as on the South China Sea. The public might be less willing to de-escalate, especially as the threat level increases.

The biggest challenge will be to influence the younger generation, which has only ever seen a China growing from strength to strength. This generation will be at the forefront of state-influencing operations since any concessions to the US will be viewed as weak, leaving the door open for civil unrest.

Within the US, despite the differences between Republicans and Democrats on most policy issues, the challenge posed by China has become a unifying force with different challenges for both parties.

If a more pronounced event were to happen, such as long-range Chinese surveillance flights or naval patrols near Hawaii or close to the US West Coast, it would result in calls for retaliation. That would leave little room for the US president, regardless of their party, to choose a diplomatic solution.

US President Joe Biden speaks during his State of the Union address at the US Capitol in Washington on February 7. Biden’s speech came against the backdrop of renewed tensions with China and a brewing showdown with House Republicans over raising the federal debt ceiling. Photo: Bloomberg

Even the role of middle powers is slowly diminishing as the Indo-Pacific region becomes more bipolar. This means middle powers such as Australia, Russia and Japan will have limited scope in de-escalating US-China tensions. It will be difficult for either superpower to ignore vested interests, especially as tensions escalate and domestic calls mount for retaliation, whether through diplomatic, economic or military means.

How many balloons the US has shot down over North America or how many China claims the US has sent to spy on it is irrelevant. Such incidents should serve as a litmus test to ensure protocols are in place to prevent a blame game that does not serve the purpose of maintaining peace.

Diplomatic channels need to remain open with confidence-building measures and proper guardrails designed to prevent a catastrophe. The war in Ukraine is an example of an event between two relatively small economies – at least compared to China and the US – where the ramifications are being felt around the globe.

The balloon incident is a test case of how not to manage crises in this new era between Beijing and Washington. If caution is not exercised and measures not put in place, any China-US conflict could have a generational impact with every sector affected and no country spared from the fallout.

Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia

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