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Opinion | China’s two-speed economy is sapping people’s desire to have children
- There are insecurities from limited social welfare, hard decisions for rural migrants about where to raise a family, and the stress of competition and social pressure
- In the long term, China needs a more even regional development so it can build public trust and a greater sense of security
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To arrest its declining population, China has abolished its one-child policy to allow families to have two and then three children in recent years. But the fertility rate continues to fall. People are less willing to have children essentially because the high cost of living and social stress from urbanisation give rise to feelings of insecurity.
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Last year, China’s urbanisation rate reached 64.7 per cent and is expected to rise further, supported by a relaxation of restrictions on hukou, the household registration system that governs rights to residency, jobs and education. But the easing of hukou rules, which would make it easier to settle, does not appear to have encouraged families to have more children.
The reluctance to have children affects both rural and urban populations, and is a result of several factors. First, China’s limited social welfare is at odds with the high-speed development of its urban areas.
Although the merger of medical and maternity insurance policies in 2019 has eased the financial pressure of child-bearing, in that women can be partially reimbursed for maternity-related medical expenses, some preconditions have not changed.
So, women who have not paid into the system for the required number of years, or who do not have local basic medical insurance, still cannot enjoy maternity insurance. This means that rural migrant workers and those in unstable employment lack maternity welfare.
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Secondly, there is the inequality of income distribution. China’s pattern of regional economic development has led to the formation of two extremes. In first-tier cities and other highly developed areas, the cost of living has become too high. But in the parts of the country where living costs are low, the basic wages, working environment and social resources are also poor.
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