Richard Heydarian

Opinion | Japan’s military build-up driven by fears over China’s rise and doubts about US alliance

Japan’s moves reflect decades-long efforts to be more self-reliant amid growing concerns over China’s rise and the reliability of the US as an ally

Given Japan’s past, though, ramping up its military spending risks sparking fears among its neighbours and ruining decades of building up soft power

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Richard Heydarian

Published: 1:00am, 26 Jan 2023Updated: 2:06am, 26 Jan 2023

“Japan’s path as a peaceful nation will remain unchanged,” Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said shortly after approving a landmark defence document which sets the country on a new strategic path. Saying the world is “at a historical crossroads”, Kishida hailed the recently released national security strategy as “a major shift from the postwar security policy” in favour of a more activist role in regional and global affairs.

Accordingly, the Japanese government has approved a five-year defence spending plan worth 43 trillion yen (US$329 billion), doubling the country’s annual defence spending as a share of gross domestic product to 2 per cent by 2027.

The controversial move – which some claim contradicts the country’s pacifist constitution – has been broadly popular, with a recent survey showing 51 per cent approval by the public.

Following this shake-up in his country’s defence policy, Kishida embarked on a five-nation tour this month as he sought to rally support from a host of Western allies. During his visit to Washington, he made it clear China is at the heart of his country’s new defence strategy by declaring, “It is absolutely imperative for Japan, the United States and Europe to stand united in managing our respective relationship with China.”

Far from an abrupt policy shift, Kishida’s latest moves reflect decades-long efforts to make Japan a more capable, self-reliant power amid growing concerns not only over China’s rise but also the reliability of the US as an ally. But given Japan’s imperial past, any military build-up is bound to trigger strategic trepidation among some neighbouring states.

For the past seven decades, Japan has been bound by a pacifist constitution which proscribes the nation from offensive projection of military power. In particular, Article 9 makes it clear that “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes”.