Opinion | War over Taiwan could be inevitable as US, China and Taipei boost military spending

The recently concluded 2022 was an extraordinarily difficult year for China. Almost everyone here has deeply felt the painful impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on their lives and the national economy. Moreover, Communist Party leadership changes added further uncertainty.

However, the biggest challenge in the Year of the Tiger was the crisis caused by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

Compared to three other pressing issues – the Covid-19 pandemic, economic downturn and leadership changes – the Taiwan problem is a historical one. I have been teaching it to Chinese and foreign students for more than a decade. Even though we continue to discuss relevant legal issues inside and outside the classroom or online, in my view, no one has made a convincing legal case for Taiwan independence.

While the debate on legal matters concerning Taiwan’s status continues, the real political forces behind the Taiwan issue have grown stronger and more assertive in recent years. On one hand, China has grown to become the world’s second-largest economy and a leading military power, and it has kept an increasingly hard line on the one-China principle in recent years.

On the other hand, Taiwan has not only developed into the world’s largest chip maker but been ruled for years by a political party that is opposed to unification with the mainland. Moreover, the United States has maintained its status as the world’s largest economy and the sole military superpower while also naming China as its biggest priority.