Opinion | Amid US-China tensions, Japan must choose deft diplomacy, not Top Gun tomfoolery, to ensure peace

Is it conceivable that the risk-taking pilot of the Chinese Navy J-11 fighter that flew within metres of a US Air Force RC-135 over the South China Sea two weeks ago once swooned over a pirated version of the new Top Gun movie? The 2022 sequel to the 1986 original film, both starring Tom Cruise, has raked in more than US$1 billion and is streaking into new international markets.

It’s an “America is super cool” film, as if only an American pilot could possibly be skilled enough to slip into the cockpit of a super-advanced jet fighter, roar the plane down a carrier runway and pick off aerial bad guys like a cowboy gunslinger. In the tense atmosphere of US-China relations, no Chinese jet jockey could land such a Hollywood blockbuster role, so perhaps People’s Liberation Army pilots might be inclined to play out Top Gun scripts on their own.

In real life, close calls in the air happen with uncomfortable frequency. Recall the 2001 mid-air collision not far from Hainan island, when a US Navy signals intelligence aircraft and a PLA Navy interceptor jet collided. Whether incidents are best characterised as “encroaching on sovereign airspace” or “freedom of navigation operations”, they are risky, destabilising and need to be, in military jargon, detensioned at the very least.

But more such incidents are sure to hit the unfriendly skies once Japan gets its rearming act in gear. Tokyo has plans to double its military investment across the board after decades of letting the United States and its Seventh Fleet run the Pacific air show. This long-simmering policy change is beloved by some domestic constituencies that have been trying for years to get Japan to abandon its commitment to pacifism and become a “normal country” again, but it will only deepen anxiety in the region, on top of existing concerns about China and its ever-growing navy.