Opinion | North and South Korea must return to peaceful dialogue after year of tit-for-tat escalation raises nuclear risks

The year 2022 has seen major shifts in the wrong direction on the Korean peninsula, with the North and South engaging in a tit-for-tat escalation campaign that continues to this day.

With the war in Ukraine and intensifying US-China rivalry, the opportunity has arisen for North Korea to more closely align itself with old-time allies in Beijing and Moscow. Meanwhile, levels of trilateral cooperation not seen in years were also observed south of the 38th parallel between Washington, Seoul and Tokyo.

With these two blocs fiercely pitted against each other, there seem to be few options for diplomacy and cooperation. This is problematic since the stakes have never been higher on the Korean peninsula. This year, North Korea showed the world its rapid level of missile and military technology development, ability to conduct continuous and multi-front military provocations, and growing arsenal of weapons of mass destruction, despite international sanctions.

North Korea has been particularly bold this year and this attitude was on full display on many occasions. An important example is the nuclear-use law adopted in September, under which North Korea could conduct a pre-emptive nuclear strike under certain conditions. What’s more, the law essentially scrapped any possibility of the denuclearisation of North Korea for now.

Another reason for concern is the speed at which North Korea’s weapons arsenal and military capabilities have developed in the past year. On November 18, for example, North Korea successfully launched a “new type” Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a highly lofted trajectory. The tests showed Pyongyang’s capability to deliver nuclear warheads against the continental United States and the constant modifications being made to its missiles.