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Opinion | US military support for Philippines in the South China Sea is no sure thing

  • US officials have pledged military support in case of a Chinese attack on the Philippines, but the treaty leaves some room for interpretation
  • There are many factors that could influence a US decision to support the Philippines, including the consequences of risking a military clash with China

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
“An armed attack on the Philippines armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defence commitments.” With such supportive statements, US Vice-President Kamala Harris reinforced the notion that, under their mutual defence treaty, the United States would provide military support to the Philippines in the event of aggression by China in the South China Sea, but such military backup is neither automatic nor guaranteed.
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Article I of the treaty says that each party is to “refrain in their international relations from the use of force”.

Article IV states that “an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the parties would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common dangers in accordance with its constitutional processes. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall be immediately reported to the Security Council of the United Nations”.

Article V defines the meaning of “attack” as “an armed attack on the metropolitan territory of either of the parties, or on the island territories under its jurisdiction in the Pacific Ocean, its armed forces, public vessels or aircraft in the Pacific”. Both Harris and former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo confirmed that “Pacific” includes the South China Sea.
A common assumption is that a clash between Chinese and Philippine forces there would invoke the mutual defence treaty. But one possible interpretation of the treaty’s language is that the Philippines must not be the first to use armed force and thus must be the victim of an unprovoked attack. This could be unlikely as China is increasing its use of “grey zone” assets to accomplish its goals while avoiding a US military response.
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The US military did not come to the rescue when in March 2011 Chinese patrol boats harassed Philippines-authorised exploration on the Reed Bank. Perhaps it did not qualify as an armed attack on Philippine forces.
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