Opinion | Why China’s ‘zero-Covid’ upheaval holds both promise and peril for the country’s future

China’s leaders always knew they would have to abandon their “zero-Covid” policy eventually and, the longer they waited, the more painful the transition would be. Yet, they seemed mired in the policy, unable to leave it behind and move on.

Then, a blaze in a block of flats in locked-down Xinjiang killed 10 people, whose escape was thwarted by locked doors and blocked entrances. This sparked China’s largest anti-government protests since the Tiananmen movement of 1989 and became the catalyst for the authorities’ decision to begin easing restrictions.

The protests were an expression of the frustration and anger accumulated during nearly three years of aggressive lockdowns, with families stuck in their homes for months, unable to visit dying loved ones, access regular healthcare or even buy food.

Compared to 1989, the government’s response was rather moderate: police dispersed demonstrations with relatively little violence, though this partly reflected their ability to use new surveillance technologies to track down protesters. China’s government has also apparently listened to the protesters. It has now scrapped some of its harsher pandemic policies, such as the requirement to quarantine in state facilities.

The plan for exiting zero Covid has been known to Chinese leaders for some time. They must boost the population’s immunity – especially that of the elderly – through some combination of higher vaccination rates and more effective foreign vaccines. Otherwise, epidemiologists estimate that opening up could cause 1 million to 2 million Covid deaths.