Why China may have more to offer Saudi Arabia than the US

After decades of US engagement and with little to show for it, Saudi Arabia is looking instead at tangible deals with China
While the US won’t give up its role as Middle East hegemon that easily, the appeal of China is growing in the region amid shifting power dynamics

Sameed Basha

Published: 5:45pm, 8 Dec 2022

Why you can trust SCMP

Seeking new frontiers, Saudi Arabia has rolled out the red carpet for China’s President Xi Jinping on his three-day visit. The two countries seek to sign agreements worth around $US30 billion to bolster relations, with bilateral trade currently at nearly US$90 billion. But, beyond the pageantry of the meeting, what matters is the context within which it is taking place.

The Gulf States, particularly Saudi Arabia, have become essential players in the global energy markets ever since Washington-led sanctions on the Russian energy sector sent oil and gas prices skyrocketing in Europe and the United States.

To combat rising prices, US President Joe Biden sought alternatives by reaching out to US-sanctioned countries like Venezuela and raising the possibility of easing restrictions on Iran. He also attempted to call the president of the United Arab Emirates and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, both of whom refused to take his calls.

Saudi Arabia, like many of the Gulf countries, is a client state of the US that seeks its protection from emerging threats in the region. Yet, when Yemen’s Houthis attacked Saudi oil refineries early in the year, there was a lack of serious intent from Washington to pursue the culprits.

That’s not even mentioning Biden’s derision of the Saudi monarchy during the US presidential campaign, when he vowed to make the regime a “pariah” – words not forgotten by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

A last-ditch effort to pay a visit to Jeddah in July and persuade the crown prince to increase the output of oil by Opec+ member countries did not come to much; output was reduced by two million barrels per day to stabilise prices.

In what would become the most memorable image of the trip, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greets US President Joe Biden with a fist bump after his arrival in Jeddah on July 15. Photo: Saudi Royal Palace via AP

Instead of introspecting, Biden went a step further and threatened Saudi Arabia with “consequences” for placing its economic interests ahead of those of the US. He also categorically stated that the US would “not walk away and leave a vacuum to be filled by China, Russia or Iran”.

Beijing is going into its current visit emphasising its desire to continue to work with Arab countries and citing their shared values: respect for each other’s sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression and, most importantly, non-interference in each other’s internal affairs.

This is in stark contrast to Biden’s proclamation that neither China, Russia nor Iran should contemplate filling the power vacuum left by the US, which has the dark undertones of a colonial mindset. To put it another way, the US may never abandon the riches of the Middle East.

However, its partners like Saudi Arabia are seeking to carve their own paths towards Beijing and Moscow, which offer reliable and tangible investments of mutual benefit, rather than the illusion of security currently provided by Washington. For example, Saudi Arabia has sought China’s assistance in developing its indigenous ballistic missile programme to help counter the threats the US is not interested in engaging with.

The visit is being seen as far more significant than a customary exchange between two regional powers as there is interest from Saudi Arabia in building on its inclusion in China’s Belt and Road Initiative by obtaining membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and possibly BRICS as well. While the US presence has marred the region with wars and coups over the past century, closer ties with China may allow the Middle East to finally have a chance at prosperity.

For many countries, China’s allure is its ability to provide forums and projects focusing on a long-term vision backed by investment and infrastructure, which is in line with the crown prince’s Saudi Vision 2030. The US, unfortunately, is too focused on securing its interests in the region and has no appetite to invest, build or develop.

Even though Western countries are reducing petroleum consumption to meet green targets, leading to a natural shift towards demand from India and China, Saudi Arabia may still have problems pursuing its interests independently, as resistance is expected from the US.

China and the Arab world share a vision for building a global community with a common destiny. China believes Beijing and Riyadh should champion multilateralism and respect each other’s sovereignty and right to self-determination.

This common core interest is a foundation for economic, cultural and technological cooperation between the two sides. Unfortunately, these characteristics are lacking in the US’ engagement with Saudi Arabia; it has little to offer and not much to show for its decades-long presence.

Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia