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Opinion | China’s rise risks being thwarted by outdated plans and a shifting world
- China’s future appears up in the air for the first time in decades, in part because of global challenges arising from its own success
- Sustaining China’s rise means addressing other countries’ scrutiny of ties with China, maintaining global access and adapting to a new form of globalisation
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For the first time in decades, China’s future is up in the air. Many global challenges are besieging the country, not least the US efforts to cordon off the globe from China – for example, by restricting chip exports.
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The prediction that China would lead the world is now in doubt. Ironically, much of what China is experiencing is a consequence of its own success. China’s rise has created shock waves that Beijing must deal with to continue rising.
If China wants to achieve what it set out to in the 20th century, it must solve three great challenges.
First, China must keep countries in its corner. Consider Zambia, which is in debt to China but has stopped taking Chinese loans and instead turned to the International Monetary Fund. Look at Bangladesh, whose finance minister has warned other developing countries about taking Chinese loans.
Entire regions are breaking away, too. The European Union is moving to reduce its reliance on China. In eastern Europe, China’s 16+1 cooperation group is crumbling as Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania have all walked away. Last year, Lithuania’s defence ministry urged citizens to avoid buying Chinese phones, and Poland ended a genomics project because of data security concerns amid involvement by the Beijing Genomics Institute.
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Both major powers and emerging economies are questioning their relationship with China. They do not want to rely on China or have it involved in their society. What does this say about Beijing’s allure?
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