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Opinion | India getting French nuclear sub technology could trigger Indian Ocean arms race
- A proposed security grouping between India, France and the United States could destabilise the Indian Ocean region and threaten its prosperity
- India expanding its technological edge could create a security dilemma for Pakistan and goad China into acting to secure its regional interests
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Ashley Tellis, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, used a recent report to propose an interesting security arrangement between India, France and the United States in the Indian Ocean. He calls this new grouping Infrus, borrowing the idea from the Aukus grouping of Australia, Britain and the United States that was introduced last year to supply at least eight nuclear-powered submarines to Australia by 2040.
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Such a strategic alliance has implications at multiple levels with middle- and long-term effects on the strategic, economic, political and security calculus of the region. The report posits that Infrus will help India build its sea-based deterrent, which it has failed to achieve so far. Likewise, it will also pave the way for developing Indian capabilities to counter China.
However, India is already far ahead in building an assured second-strike capability with Russian-leased submarines and technological assistance. Likewise, any nuclear submarines under the new grouping will entangle not only China but also Pakistan.
An arrangement that favours one state in the region will only add complexity to the security calculus and interests of other regional actors. It will threaten the precarious strategic stability in South Asia by tilting the balance in favour of India.
It will be a threat to the interests of China, which is dependent on the Indian Ocean for much of its energy needs. Also, it will be against the professed principles of a “free and open Indo-Pacific”.
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The idea behind Infrus is that to counter a rising China, New Delhi should build an effective sea-based deterrent. It would only be possible if India is able to combine stealth and mobility by building an effective nuclear ballistic missile submarine force.
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