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OpinionComment
Mark J. Valencia
Mark J. Valencia

Opinion | In courting both the US and China, the Philippines is trying to have its cake and eat it

  • Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr is seeking greater security guarantees from the US, but they will come at the price of hosting US military assets
  • Providing US forces such access is bound to go down badly with China, a vital trade partner with whom Marcos also wants stronger ties

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Mark J. Valencia
This week, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin will meet Philippine Defence Secretary Jose Faustino Jnr in Hawaii. Although ostensibly routine, this is another move in the dangerous game Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr is playing. Indeed, as he tries to balance ties with China and the US, he may not be able to have his cake and eat it too.
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Marcos wants both the security protection of the US and the maintenance of vital economic relations with China, the Philippines’ top trading partner with which bilateral trade reached nearly US$50 billion in 2019. China is also the Philippines’ leading source of foreign investment. Probably recognising – like his predecessor Rodrigo Duterte – that China will always be “there”, Marcos has pledged to foster closer relations with China.

The problem is that US security protection apparently requires a quid pro quo from the Philippines. The US wants to position its military assets in the Philippines, as part of its strategy to counter China’s regional power. It is going to be very difficult for Manila to balance relations with both without risking the benefits it enjoys from each.
Marcos was one of the few leaders granted an audience with US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Biden also met the heads of France, Britain, South Korea and Japan.

Marcos was probably among this select group because the US needs the Philippines as much as, or even more than, the Philippines needs the US. China has modernised its military to the extent that there is fear it might overwhelm US forward-deployed forces in the South China Sea before reinforcements could arrive from extraregional bases.

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Meanwhile, China’s neighbours and rival claimants in the South China Sea are helpless in the face of its interference in their legal exclusive economic zones. They need US backup to deter China.
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