Opinion | How Russia’s war in Ukraine increases the threat to China’s border and economy

Russia’s war performance reflects badly on China, a major buyer of Russian arms, even as it risks an energy-led recession in Europe that will hurt Chinese trade

But the greater danger is that a war-weakened Russia will expose China’s border as military frictions throughout Central Asia, largely kept under wraps by Moscow, reignite

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Published: 3:30am, 24 Sep 2022Updated: 5:56am, 24 Sep 2022

Back in February, President Xi Jinping may have thought that, no matter which way the Russian-Ukrainian war went down, China would come out ahead. If the invasion succeeded, it would be a blow to Nato and the American-led global order; if it failed, it would be an even bigger blow to Russia, drawing it closer to Beijing. But Xi may be getting more than he bargained for.

Russia’s war in Ukraine is far from over. It could go on for months, even years. Oil and gas shortages in Europe could trigger a recession, and Chinese imports would be among the first sectors to take a hit. This would hurt China’s already ailing economy, beset as it is with bank failures, a real estate bubble just beginning to pop, and the departure of Western companies fleeing the business-unfriendly zero-Covid-19 policies.

To make matters worse, Moscow’s war performance also reflects on Beijing, one of the largest buyers of Russian arms. Two-thirds of China’s arms imports come from Russia, a trade worth about US$15 billion in 2017.

Seemingly all of Russia’s weapons systems have performed egregiously in the Ukraine theatre – including “pop goes the weasel” tanks that self-destruct with a single hit, an almost total lack of effective Russian air cover over the battlefield, and the sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s flagship Moskva, which Ukraine claims it achieved with ground-based truck-transported Neptune missiles.

This does not speak highly for China’s military prowess, tied as it is to Russian imports. Which one of China’s 20 neighbours would fear it now?

The longer the war continues, the weaker Russia will become. Assassinations of President Vladimir Putin’s allies and enemies alike are increasing, many described as accidents or suicides by officials. Political dissent is rising, including increased public calls for Putin to resign. Some military pundits in the West are even predicting a Russian collapse within five years.