Nancy Pelosi risked global security with Taiwan visit, all in a feeble attempt to shore up Democrat voter base
- US House Speaker’s Taiwan visit was a political stunt with the shortsighted aim of winning Democrat votes ahead of midterm elections
- Yet there will be long-term consequences, including heightened geopolitical uncertainty, while Beijing will inflict economic pain through tariffs and sanctions
Pelosi’s visit was not a spur-of-the-moment thing but a venture carefully coordinated by the White House, Congress and the Pentagon so as to balance provocation with plausible deniability.
Pelosi, the current Speaker of the House of Representatives, launched her re-election campaign early in the year, hoping to retain the role for a fifth term. Her approval rating stands at 24 per cent, with 60 per cent of voters wanting her to step aside, while 49 per cent of Democrats favour her remaining.
Taiwan cannot turn down overtures by the US; Pelosi’s visit is a feeble attempt to shore up the Democrat voting base rather then being in Taiwan’s interest.
Beijing may seek to craft policies that will affect the average American voter, 63 per cent of whom live pay cheque to pay cheque. Combined with a looming recession in the US, any additional economic burden would probably lead to the transgressors in the Biden administration being voted out in the midterms.
Beijing could reduce its US debt holdings, which hover around the US$1 trillion mark, and flood markets with a supply of US bonds which would cause fixed income prices to fall and increase yields.
If yields increase, it would make it more expensive for US corporations and the public to borrow, slowing the US economy and pushing it further into a recession. With a global downturn, it would be difficult for other countries to buy US bonds and fill the void left by China.
Pelosi’s symbolic visit to Taiwan was timed for short-term gains to an eroding Democratic voter base. Yet such provocations only increase uncertainty in markets and the world at large.
In Europe, the US repeatedly disregarded Russia’s concerns as it pursued Nato expansion, eventually pushing President Vladimir Putin to launch an invasion of Ukraine. Recognising the one-China policy while simultaneously chipping away at it through arms deals and state visits increases distrust and places the US in an untenable position of fighting a war on two fronts, one that it is destined to lose.
Sameed Basha is a defence and political analyst with a master’s degree in international relations from Deakin University, Australia