Opinion | If Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan, there is almost nothing to gain, everything to lose
With voicing support for Taiwan currently on trend in US politics, the pressure is on the House speaker to make her proposed visit to the island
Yet while little would be lost by her not going – Beijing was never going to change its mind about reunification anyway – the risks to regional security are huge if she pushes ahead
During a visit to China in 1972, I saw a hoarding featuring a soldier holding a bayonet, emblazoned with the words “We must reclaim Taiwan!”. I think about this hoarding whenever the subject of Taiwan is raised in the United States, especially whenever a bombastic policymaker or pundit suggests the US can intimidate China out of seeking reunification.
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Such sentiment is much in evidence today, as the Ukraine crisis has revived fears that China may try to take the island by force. This fear, coupled with record high negative views of China in the US, is prompting members of Congress to more vocally show their support for Taiwan, regardless of the reaction it provokes from Beijing.
Indeed, drawing criticism from Beijing has become a bit of a bragging right, while voicing support from Taiwan is one of the easiest ways for politicians to fluff their resumes as China hawks. In April, Democrat Bob Menendez and Republican Lindsey Graham led a bipartisan group of senators on a visit to Taiwan. Chinese state media referred to Graham as a “clown”, which Graham described as “high praise”.
Members of an American congressional delegation pose for a photo with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen (centre right), and other Taiwanese officials in Taipei on April 15. Photo: Taiwan Presidential Office/ AP
This brings us to Nancy Pelosi’s rumoured plans to visit Taiwan next month. China has signalled that this visit would be met with a stronger reaction than the other visits by members of Congress in recent years.
This is because she would be the first speaker of the House of Representatives to visit Taiwan since 1997. The speaker is the highest-ranking member of the House and second in line to succeed the president. Pelosi also has a record as a thorn in Beijing’s side.
I spent nearly five decades working for the Library of Congress to help inform policymakers on China-related issues. I remember Pelosi used to have a picture of the Tiananmen Square “Tank Man” hanging in her office.
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She made her career on the crisis, emerging as a relatively unknown Congresswoman from California to advocate on behalf of Chinese youth studying in the US following the crackdown and urging the White House to extend their visas.
News of Pelosi’s rumoured visit has prompted a flurry of responses. US President Joe Biden stopped short of saying Pelosi should not go but told reporters last week that the military “thinks it’s not a good idea”. Pelosi feigned ignorance of Biden’s concerns, telling reporters that perhaps the military was afraid “our plane would get shot down … by the Chinese”.
