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Opinion | Why China should brace itself for a Pacific rebuff
- Pacific island leaders have repeatedly expressed their reservations about being drawn into the power struggle between Beijing and Washington
- With the US navy already having a foothold in the region, China needs much more than one base to gain military relevance in the South Pacific
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Pacific island nations continue to send negative signals or buy time on China’s bid to strike a security pact with them. This suggests that a strategic debacle may be in the offing for China, which risks losing the opportunity to hit the United States in what seems to be its soft underbelly along the Pacific Rim.
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On June 17, during an official visit to New Zealand, Samoan Prime Minister Fiame Naomi Mata’afa said South Pacific countries could deal with their own security affairs without the intervention of outside actors.
Just three days earlier, Mata’afa had pointed out that China’s proposal for a comprehensive security arrangement should be considered by the 18-strong Pacific Islands Forum. The regional organisation will convene on July 12-14, and Mata’afa’s call should sound the alarm for China.
Australia and New Zealand, two US allies worried by Chinese activism in what they consider their geopolitical backyard, are part of the forum. It also includes the Federated States of Micronesia, which loudly opposes the stipulation of a security deal with the Chinese while welcoming economic cooperation with them.
At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Fijian Defence Minister Inia Seruiratu bluntly emphasised that “machine guns, fighter jets … are not our primary security concern. The single greatest threat to our very existence is climate change”.
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Having bases or extended rights of stopover and replenishment in the South Pacific would be a great strategic coup for China. If it were to succeed in establishing some sort of military presence in the region, it might attack US frontline troops and hardware along the first island chain from behind.
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