Bruce Elleman

Opinion | China’s Russia dilemma is also a land vs sea power predicament

From the heyday of the British Empire to the present, sea powers have set the global order and land powers have contested it

While China has traditionally been a continental power, its capabilities at sea have grown in recent years. Choosing to side with Russia would be a step backwards into the land power paradigm

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A flotilla of the People’s Liberation Army Navy carrying relief supplies arrives in Nuku’alofa, Tonga, on February 15, 2022. Traditionally a land power, China has boosted its naval capacity in recent years. Photo: Xinhua

Bruce Elleman

Published: 9:15am, 24 Mar 2022Updated: 9:24am, 24 Mar 2022

China is facing a monumental decision right now: whether to help Russia or not. On March 18, US President Joe Biden described to Chinese President Xi Jinping the “implications and consequences if China provides material support to Russia” at this time.

To assist Russian President Vladimir Putin in dominating Ukraine might further China’s land-power interests, but it could also destroy China’s transition to one of the world’s newest sea powers, including becoming perhaps the most important member of the global economy.

If Xi decides to back Putin, Western sanctions, tariffs and even a commercial blockade might be in China’s near-term future. This would derail Beijing’s hope for a 5.5 per cent growth rate this year. It could also disrupt critical oil and food supplies.

China has long been considered one of the world’s greatest land, or continental, powers. The construction of the Great Wall is often cited as proof of China’s traditional focus on land power.

Warfare was also constrained mainly to land warfare; Sun Tzu’s Art of War discussed how river currents could impact military strategy, but there is zero mention of warfare on oceans.

A woman walks on the Great Wall of China after light snowfall in Jiankou, north of Beijing, on January 9. The wall is a powerful symbol of China as a land power. Photo: AFP

After the Tiananmen Square crackdown, the fall of the Berlin Wall, and the 1991 demise of the Soviet Union, Sino-American relations became more strained. Russia quickly stepped in, selling China Sovremenny guided-missile destroyers and Kilo-class submarines.