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Opinion | Ukraine invasion: China may be world’s best bet for brokering peace between Russia and the West

  • The threat of nuclear force calls for greater attempts at negotiation and a willingness by the West to make concessions to provide Putin with a way out
  • Beijing’s relations with Moscow, plus its core principles of non-interference and ‘no first use’ of nukes make it an ideal mediator

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Illustration: Craig Stephens

In global diplomatic circles, what is not uttered publicly can reveal more than that which is out in the open. Perhaps no one captured this with more spice and sauce than Charles Maurice De Talleyrand-Périgord, the acknowledged French maestro of European diplomacy from the second half of the 18th century into the 19th. As he memorably proclaimed, “speech was given to man to conceal his thoughts”.

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Speech concealment is thus hardly unknown in current diplomacy but for the Chinese diplomat, having to carry the burden of an alliance of some sort with Russia at a time of the latter’s gruesome humanitarian criminality in Ukraine must be hard on the nerves.

From China’s perspective, the problem is that any invasion, even by a presumed ally, is a blatant rejection of its axiom of non-interference in the internal affairs of another sovereign state. As foreign minister Wang Yi puts it, ever so mildly, “the current situation is not what we want to see”.

Keep in mind that the Moscow-Beijing relationship is not exactly blood brothers under the skin. Russia has not always been such a good neighbour. At a length of more than 4,000km (2,485 miles), the border between them is the world’s sixth longest – about the distance between Washington and Los Angeles.

Over the past two centuries, China has had to cede more territory to a bullying Russia than to anyone else. The fact is that the “new” relationship with Moscow got strung out on a limb of an imaginary Sino-Russian romance.
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Yes, President Vladimir Putin pulled off a minor diplomatic coup. But the Beijing-Moscow love-in was forced. Even when Russia was fraternally Communist, Beijing was hardly unable to turn its back on Moscow, as Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger discovered to their satisfaction 50 years ago. Let’s hope China does again.
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