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Ukraine
OpinionComment
Tom Plate
Tom Plate

Opinion | Power game: Ukraine’s fate will be shaped by decisions from Russia, China and America

  • Russia is seeking to influence Ukraine while Washington keeps a close watch on both Moscow and Beijing
  • The Biden administration is on shaky ground domestically and needs a foreign-policy win after the Afghanistan fiasco

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Russian President Vladimir Putin watches through a pair of binoculars the military exercises at Donguz shooting range near Orenburg, Russia, in September 2019. Not very much can be done without concentrations of power, but the fact is power can be used for evil as well as for good. Photo: AP
Tom Plate

Power is not always angelic. When the power to do something exists, it often gathers like a storm, ready to be unleashed. Power is also agnostic; it can be used for evil as well as for good. One thing is for certain. Without concentrations of power, not very much, for better or for worse, would ever get done.

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Consolidated power can tilt towards moderation or in the opposite direction. Governments that are locked and loaded are as likely to be as embarrassingly trigger-happy as they are to act wisely. Telling examples include the United States’ retaliatory invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, and the idiotic invasion of Iraq in 2003. Without the power to do something, less might have been done, and in these cases, less would surely have been better for the world.

These days, Russia has the power to loom over Ukraine, aiming to influence, as does the US, the alliance orientation of the government in Kyiv, and so the redoubtable boss of Russia, Vladimir Putin, is tempted to use the power.
For years Russia has been noting with resentment the advance of Nato’s shadowy eminence eastwards. Putin is no student of Irish playwright Oscar Wilde, but surely he’d concur with one of his quips: “The only way to get rid of a temptation is to yield to it. Resist it, and your soul grows sick with longing …”

Washington is not only aiming to counter Moscow but is also watching whether Beijing might be in any way tempted to go along with Putin. If it didn’t possess power, its decision would be inconsequential.

02:30

US predicts Russia will ‘move in’ on Ukraine as UK and Canada send arms and special forces

US predicts Russia will ‘move in’ on Ukraine as UK and Canada send arms and special forces

But Beijing will be smart and cautious because, like it or not, it knows it must worry about its global image and soft power now that it is such a huge phenomenon with oft-proclaimed broad ambitions.

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