S. George Marano

Opinion | With China, Russia and Iran waiting in the wings, can America really leave Iraq?

The US occupation of Iraq was a foreign policy catastrophe that allowed China’s influence to grow and Russia’s resurgence while elevating Iran’s regional status

Given this troika, and the risk of an Isis resurgence, it would be no surprise if the US reinstated combat troops in Iraq down the line

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A man burns the US flag during a rally in front of the gate of Baghdad’s Green Zone on December 31, to mark the withdrawal of American combat troops from Iraq. Photo: dpa

S. George Marano

Published: 1:30am, 24 Jan 2022

The US occupation of Iraq, the second sibling in its “war on terror” has lingered for almost two decades. Its December 31 withdrawal of combat troops, replacing them with trainers and advisers, has no doubt been welcomed by most Iraqis and isolationists in Washington DC.

Yet, China’s increasing footprint in Iraq, Russian military resurgence in the Middle East, Iran and the power of the “Shia Crescent”, along with the possible resurgence of Islamic State are all threats to the US, meaning not only is a full retreat untenable, but the reinstatement of combat troops at some time in the future may not be surprising, either.

The December 31 de-escalation was a long-awaited first step to the full sovereignty that many Iraqis hope for. Nonetheless, Washington’s reluctance to leave was highlighted two years ago when former president Donald Trump rebuffed an Iraqi parliament resolution to expel foreign troops, threatening punishment that would “make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame”.

Whatever the geostrategic intent of the US invasion of Iraq, the consequences have been regional upheaval, shifting power dynamics and a financially indebted America with a severely dented reputation.

This foreign policy catastrophe allowed China’s influence to grow and Russia’s resurgence while elevating Iran’s regional status. An emboldened troika now linger on the periphery, looking to capitalise on Washington’s strategic mistakes, as in Afghanistan.

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