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Opinion | What will sustain US-China relations if economic gains no longer suffice?

  • With economic trends getting worse and calls for US companies to bring production home growing louder, the future foundation for the US-China relationship is unclear
  • Foreign direct investment appears to be the one area of mutual, sustained interest. Will that be enough?

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Illustration: Stephen Case
New tensions are piling up in the already fraught US-China relationship. Principal among them is a reshoring trend that has moved well beyond the political catchphrase featured by both the Joe Biden and Donald Trump administrations.
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A rare bipartisan approach in Washington continues to call for returning production from overseas and expanding domestic operations. These voices will grow louder throughout 2022.

This marks a significant shift in the US-China relationship that has managed to sustain itself largely through economic gains for both sides. Even US companies in China are hitting a wall.
Global supply chain resilience is the new buzz phrase. It caught on in part due to Covid-19 complications in shipping and ports, but the pandemic impetus will subside over time. Political tensions between the world’s two largest economies, however, show no signs of slowing.

Decades-long divisions can no longer be papered over with a combination of economic opportunism and political hubris. Neither side can contain the domestic political influences that are increasingly shaping economic decision-making. And the economic incentives for manufacturers to produce in the US are resulting in real job growth.

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