Michael Zhou

Opinion | For China, the history that matters is still the ‘century of humiliation’

To understand China’s contentious relations with the US and the wider West, analogies referencing the Cold War and Thucydides trap tell only one side of the story

China’s past suffering at the hands of foreign powers continues to exert great influence on its foreign policy, and is a major reason it won’t balk at war to defend its dignity

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Visitors pose for photos near the large portrait of Chinese leader Mao Zedong on Tiananmen Gate next to Tiananmen Square in Beijing on September 18. Photo: AP

Michael Zhou

Published: 9:15am, 28 Sep 2021

History informs foreign policy decisions. Today, historical analogies such as the Thucydides trap, World War I and the Cold War are used to describe and understand US-China strategic competition and its implications for the rest of the world.

But the above analogies, which are derived from Western historical contexts, may have less influence on and relevance for China’s foreign policy decisions.

China’s leaders have openly rejected these analogies. In a 2015 speech, President Xi Jinping declared: “There is no such thing as the so-called Thucydides trap in the world.” And, more recently, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the world should oppose “bloc” confrontation, calling it Cold War mentality and a “regression of history”.

If Chinese leaders do not accept these Western historical analogies, then we should ask: what analogies do they use?

The most influential historical analogy for the Chinese is the “century of humiliation”, rooted in the First Opium War between 1839 and 1842. The war marked the beginning of China’s century of military defeats, unequal treaties, territorial concessions and social unrest, which roused feelings of humiliation, shame and anger.