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Opinion | How China’s census offers clues to its next policy moves
- Beijing’s regulatory moves are sound policy responses to its demographic and economic challenges, though they could be better communicated and the business sector given some lead time to adapt
- Changes in China’s demographic quantity, structure, quality and distribution will continue to direct policy measures and their business implications
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Some of China’s recent policies might be too tough, but the intention is to build a better and stronger economy. For instance, the call for “common prosperity” has caused confusion, even disorientation, outside China.
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It would be much easier to understand if it is described as a continuation of policies on alleviating poverty and narrowing the gap between poor and rich. The recent crackdown on the education market is another example of the lack of policy communication with the business sector and the public.
Observers and analysts outside China often miss the historical background and deep-seated reasons for these policy measures. The truth is not that complicated: China has not reversed major economic and social policies. The relationship between regulation of the education sector and the latest population census actually illustrates policy rationality.
Regulations for extracurricular education were clearly promulgated to reduce education costs and improve the fertility rate. As a result, publicly listed education companies suffered significant losses of market value.
In a mature market economy, it often takes months or even years to react to socio-economic issues with relevant policy changes, especially when legislation is involved. However, China usually acts much more quickly.
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