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War in Afghanistan
OpinionComment
Brian P. Klein
Brian P. Klein

Opinion | Afghanistan and its extremist elements are China’s problem now

  • Despite the Taliban’s reassurances, Beijing’s options will remain limited if violence flares up
  • But giving the Taliban economic support also risks strengthening extremist groups such as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement

Reading Time:3 minutes
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Members of the Taliban patrol in Kandahar, Afghansitan, on August 22. When the last US cargo plane leaves, extremists will be in charge. Photo: EPA-EFE
Brian P. Klein

US troops and a small cadre of diplomats are mired in a hasty, ill-planned departure from Kabul. That’s a massive problem for China. For the past 20 years, extremism has been kept at bay despite a losing war over nation-building. When the last cargo plane leaves, extremists will be in charge.

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This poses a unique challenge for Beijing, one that will not be easily solved by lavishing development and reconstruction funds on the Taliban. The US spent at least US$30 billion on reconstruction efforts, US$24 billion on economic development and US$10 billion on counter-narcotics efforts.

Humanitarian assistance totalled US$3.9 billion from 2002-2019. That did not root out extremist elements or guarantee a stable government. It did not unite historically warring tribal factions. And there’s little reason that similar efforts by Beijing will yield a better outcome.

The Taliban’s charm offensive on China is already in full swing. Spokesman Suhail Shaheen said in early July that the Taliban regards China as a “friend”. He offered protection for Chinese investment and workers.

Later that month, when Taliban leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar met Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Tianjin, Baradar promised that “the territory of Afghanistan will not be used against security of any country including China”, according to Shaheen.

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China pledges to support Taliban role in restoring peace in Afghanistan after US withdrawal

China pledges to support Taliban role in restoring peace in Afghanistan after US withdrawal
These are not credible reassurances. Despite similar assertions to the US and former Afghan government, the Taliban maintained ties with many extremist groups. Of particular concern to China is the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), which has been tolerated by the new leadership in Kabul, if not directly supported.
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