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Opinion | Why Germany’s China policy is unlikely to change, post Merkel
- The depth of Sino-German trade relations makes a dramatic change in policy on either side unlikely
- An understanding has been reached where Berlin can press Beijing on human rights, without hurting trade relations, while China will also maintain the status quo and not use economic coercion
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Angela Merkel paid her last visit to Washington as German chancellor earlier this month. US President Joe Biden sought Merkel’s commitment to his broader strategy of allied cooperation against the challenges posed by China – an ambition he laid out during his June trip to Europe – but he was probably frustrated by her reluctance to give specific details of Germany’s support.
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While trade relations between the United States and China have plummeted, China and Germany remain arguably each other’s most important trade partner. Neither Merkel nor her successor will be eager to upset this relationship by taking more aggressive action alongside the US and its European allies.
There have been indications of mounting discontent in Germany at Sino-German relations. In April 2020, a German newspaper made out a US$165 billion bill to be paid by China for the coronavirus pandemic.
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In October 2020, a Pew survey found that 71 per cent of Germans had negative views of China, and 78 per cent had no confidence that Chinese President Xi Jinping would “do the right thing regarding world affairs”. There has been mixed messaging from the German government on whether on a new course in China policy is imminent.
But Germany’s broader track record with regard to China suggests that the government’s seemingly more provocative moves are merely face-saving and not indicative of a broader shift in China policy.
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