Opinion | China needs better friends than the Taliban to make the most of its rise to power

As the United States withdrawal from Afghanistan reaches the eleventh hour, the return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan seems a mere formality. Given that the Taliban was ostensibly the reason the US undertook the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the rapid return of the group to power in Kabul does not bode well for US-Afghan relations or US interests in the region.

China, on the other hand, potentially stands to benefit if the Taliban returns to power. Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen recently called China a “welcome friend” and promised to protect Chinese investors and workers in Afghanistan as well as stop any potential Uygur separatist fighters from using Afghanistan as a safe haven.

Geopolitically, this is a potentially significant development for China. Afghanistan – which shares a border with China – sits in a region of immense importance to China’s global ambitions. The most notable of these is China’s flagship policy, the Belt and Road Initiative, with the main “road” running directly through Central Asia.

China has already invested significant amounts in the broader region, especially in Pakistan with its China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which began in 2013. Having a friendly Afghanistan could see it expand its infrastructure projects farther north.

Afghanistan, under Taliban rule, could join Pakistan in giving Beijing two “ironclad friends” in Central Asia at a time when Sino-Iranian relations appear robust. That would undermine the influence of the US and India there.

Pakistan is an interesting template to consider as the friendship it shares with Beijing is more than a strategic and normative arrangement; it is also rooted in significant historical reciprocity. China was instrumental in helping Pakistan acquire nuclear weapons and, more recently, it has supported Pakistan over the Kashmir issue.