Opinion | Why work is the biggest hurdle to solving East Asia’s population crisis

Birth rates throughout East Asia have fallen to critically low levels. South Korea’s rate fell to a record in 2020 – just 0.84 children were expected to be born per woman, versus the 2.1 needed for population stability. Korea is not alone; Hong Kong’s birth rate was just 1.05 in 2019 while Singapore’s had 1.1 births per woman in 2020.

In Taiwan, women can expect to have just 1.05 children each. Japan, once the demographic laggard of East Asia, now has one of the highest birth rates in the region, at a mere 1.36 children per woman.

Beijing is not ignorant of the challenges that a low birth rate creates. Initial reforms to the country’s population policies have allowed more families to have two children, and many localities have expanded the services they provide to mothers and families.

The pace of policy change has accelerated in the past year. Birth limits could be raised to three children or removed altogether for rapidly depopulating northeastern provinces. There have been reforms to marriage and the divorce law, aimed at encouraging family stability. The People’s Bank of China has published a working paper urging the government to take action on low birth rates, and the paper’s publication triggered a rise in the price of infant product stocks.

Many governments have tried to boost birth rates, with few success stories. Occasionally, a policy succeeds in creating a modest baby boom, but almost no country has been able to increase its birth rate through policy enough to totally shift its long-term population trajectory.