The View | Four reasons Joe Biden and Donald Trump will not differ much on US trade policy

With US President Joe Biden approaching the 100-day mark in office, we have already learned four important things about how trade policy is likely to unfold, at least initially, under the new US administration.

First, former president Donald Trump’s legacy will cast a wide shadow. Trump’s norm-busting presidency, and in particular his proclivity to run roughshod over traditional alliances and marginalise global institutions, spurred conjecture on whether US relations with the rest of the world would snap back to normal once Trump was no longer in office.

Based on Biden’s first 100 days, the short answer appears to be “no”. European partners, for instance, appear less willing to rally around reasserted US leadership in trade. This was evident even before Biden took office, when the European Union decided to move forward on its investment agreement with China despite entreaties from the incoming Biden team to hold off until a more unified approach to China could jointly be developed.

This was a sharp departure from the EU’s usual preference to coordinate closely with the US. Even Japan, one of the most stalwart US allies, has been uncharacteristically resistant to encouragement from Washington to join in imposing sanctions in response to the situation in Xinjiang. 

The reluctance of traditional partners to follow the US lead reflects a sober assessment that, far from being a historical aberration, Trumpism and perhaps Trump himself could return to the White House as early as 2024. According to this perspective, why reinvest in US leadership when the rug could be pulled out again in a few short years?