Yi Fuxian

Opinion | US-China relations: squabble between ageing superpowers is not what the world needs

Overhyped projections and a lack of mutual political trust are sabotaging Sino-US relations, and strategic misjudgments based on incorrect data could be costly

Both sides are ageing rapidly and losing economic dynamism, turning any potential war between them into a mere frolic between a sick cat and a skinny dog

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Yi Fuxian

Published: 1:15am, 25 Feb 2021Updated: 4:25am, 25 Feb 2021

One of the reasons for the deterioration of US-China relations is the exaggerated forecasts of China’s economy. Government economists such as Justin Yifu Lin and David Daokui Li have predicted that China’s per capita GDP will be half or even 70 per cent of the US’, while its overall GDP will be twice or even triple that of its rival by 2050.

The Chinese authorities are pleased with these forecasts and are pursuing strategic expansion accordingly. Other countries, such as the US, have also been misled by these forecasts, mistaking an old, sick cat for an aggressive lion. For example, Michael Pillsbury, the leading authority on China according to former US president Donald Trump, believes the size of China’s economy will be triple that of the US by 2049 and that China will turn the US into a colony.

In fact, China’s population is already shrinking and it cannot afford an expansive government. If China is fortunate enough to stabilise its total fertility rate at 1.2, its population in 2050 will be 2.9 times larger than the US’ instead of the 4 times predicted by Lin.

Doctors do not diagnose someone as dying of old age, but of cancer, heart disease, and so on. However, the elderly are more likely to develop these diseases. Similarly, there are many direct causes for the economic slowdown in Japan and some European countries, but the underlying cause is an ageing population.

Japan, Italy, Portugal, Greece and Germany are among those facing the most severe ageing. In 1995, Japan’s per capita GDP was 1.5 times higher than that of the US’, but it was only 62 per cent of the US’ level in 2019. The per capita GDP of Italy, Portugal, Greece and Germany was 84, 51, 66 and 94 per cent of the US’ in 2008 respectively, and dropped to 51, 36, 30 and 71 per cent in 2019.

01:31

China faces demographic challenge as birth rate drops despite government efforts

China’s total fertility rate – the average number of children a woman would have if she survives her childbearing years – has been lower than that of the US since 1991 and that of the five countries mentioned above since 2000, meaning China faces more severe ageing problems.