Martin Williams

Opinion | Coronavirus death toll and lingering effects show wisdom in science’s early warnings

As Covid-19 continues its rampage around the world, it seems wise to abandon meddling with viruses, and perhaps too late to heed other scientists’ warnings that doing so poses extraordinary risks to the public

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Nurse Vanessa Arroyo receives a Covid-19 vaccine at Tampa General Hospital in Florida on December 14. Photo: TNS

Martin Williams

Published: 1:30am, 9 Jan 2021Updated: 2:19am, 9 Jan 2021

In January last year, as reports were emerging of a new coronavirus being detected outside mainland China, I wrote a column that suggested, “It can be readily transmitted by mobile people, and indeed cause a pandemic.”

This wasn’t conjecture, but rather it was based on science including evolutionary biology. It states that highly lethal viruses immobilise too many people to spread well, while those that allow high mobility can become widespread and exact a huge toll, like the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed about 50 million people worldwide.

Experts expressed concern, including Professor Gabriel Leung, chair of public health medicine at the University of Hong Kong, who warned of the potential for a global pandemic. US epidemiologist Eric Feigl-ding tweeted, “It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad... I’m not exaggerating.”

Feigl-Ding shot to fame with this tweet and was criticised by infectious disease experts who considered him unduly alarmist. Yet the coronavirus now known as Covid-19 has proved to be “pandemic level bad”, and it might be far from finished.

Science can provide some insights into what might happen with Covid-19, along with ways to limit its impact. As experience shows, though, much depends on how humans react.

03:06

Coronavirus: anti-lockdown protests erupt across Europe in UK, Germany and Spain

One bizarre reaction, too common in the West, is to simply deny Covid-19 exists or is a problem. On New Year’s Eve, for instance, a group gathered outside a London hospital to shout “Covid is a hoax!” even as many people inside were suffering from the disease.