Opinion | Hong Kong must not be misled about the unneeded Lantau Tomorrow Vision
With the proposal for the Lantau project, the Hong Kong government is either misleading the public, or guilty of magical thinking. It seems to believe residents can move in eight years after such a complex project begins
Fooling some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time seems to be the government’s approach in pushing for the Lantau Tomorrow Vision project.
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Former chief executive Leung Chun-ying proposed the project then known as East Lantau Metropolis in his 2014 policy address. That plan for 1,000 hectares of reclaimed land has evolved into a 1,700-hectare project, renamed Lantau Tomorrow Vision and presented by Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor in her 2018 policy address.
At a cost of HK$624 billion (HK$1 trillion by the time construction begins in 2025) and with a feasibility study that will cost HK$550 million, it will be the most expensive infrastructure project in the history of Hong Kong, surpassing the combined cost of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge, the third airport runway and the high-speed rail link to Guangzhou. Yet, between 2014 and now, the government’s case for the Lantau project was presented with such shoddy analysis that it would be laughed out of any investment community should the government want to seek funding for it.
The most egregious claim is that the Lantau project is necessary to ease Hong Kong’s land shortage, meet the population’s housing needs, and promote economic growth. The project will not meet short-term housing needs since it will be at least 12 years before residents can move in. According to the census report in September, Hong Kong’s population of 7.5 million will peak at 8.1 million in 2041, before decreasing to 7.3 million in 2069. That’s an increase of 600,000 at the most.
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Why Carrie Lam’s Lantau land reclamation plan is so controversial
Why Carrie Lam’s Lantau land reclamation plan is so controversial
The government has already identified five sites that will provide housing for 712,300 residents. They are Tung Chung New Town Extension and four New Development Areas in Yuen Long South, Kam Tin South, Hung Shui Kiu, and New Territories North. Construction has begun in Tung Chung and Hung Shui Kiu. In all, 25 identified sites will provide about 240,000 public housing units, which are now in various stages of design and construction. Feasibility studies are being conducted for 18 other sites.
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In addition, the government has identified 1,414 hectares of brownfield sites, 450 hectares of which have potential for public housing development. It is estimated that 63 hectares can provide 20,000 public housing units; more will be planned.
