Douglas H. Paal

Opinion | First step for US after a Joe Biden win is keeping Donald Trump from doing more harm

If Trump loses the election, he could impose a high cost on America’s reputation and government functions if he tries to stop a transition of power

First task after the election is to prevent Trump and his staff from engaging in scorched-earth tactics, before ensuring the government works properly again

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US President Donald Trump, left, and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden speak during the first presidential debate in Cleveland on September 29. If Trump loses next month’s election, he and his staff could be tempted to engage in scorched-earth tactics on their way out of the White House. Photo: TNS

Douglas H. Paal

Published: 1:00am, 16 Oct 2020Updated: 7:12am, 17 Oct 2020

As the US presidential election rapidly closes in, heads are spinning with the pace of events. After a roller coaster-like summer, we had a presidential debate like no other, coronavirus infections at a White House superspreader event, contentious hearings for a Supreme Court nominee, and who knows what else will occur between now and November 3.

It is time to step back and take stock of what will follow the election. I will leave it to others to guess what will happen in terms of new policies and personnel. Incumbent US President Donald Trump seems unable to identify and recruit competent administrators. By contrast, Joe Biden reportedly has a cast of 2,000 self-identified foreign policy advisers alone.

My focus is on two things – what should not happen right after the election and what needs to happen early in the next presidential and Congressional term. The polls and Trump’s own chaotic and non-strategic behaviour show him in serious jeopardy of losing. There is also a not insignificant chance his defeat will lead to a Senate with a narrow Democratic majority and continued Democratic control of the House of Representatives.

If Trump does lose the vote, he has more than hinted he will fight or impede a smooth presidential transition. His chances of ultimate success are close to non-existent because doing that would be so far out of the mainstream of American history. However, that does not mean he will not try or that his efforts will not impose a high cost on America’s reputation and the government’s functioning.

A second, less-apparent risk is what Trump office holders may do on their way out the door. This could be very relevant to you, readers.

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