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Opinion | Japan’s new prime minister will find a way to stay friends with China and the US

  • Political watchers are expecting Yoshihide Suga to choose between the US and China amid heightened US-China rivalry
  • But Japan’s new leader is a realist who has what it takes to continue the country’s strategy of dual diplomacy

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Illustration: Craig Stephens
Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has set out to follow the Abe administration’s policies. Since taking office, Suga has held phone conversations with US President Donald Trump and the leaders of two US allies, Australia and South Korea. But he needs to focus on the recovery of an economy hit hard by Covid-19. And to revitalise Japan’s economy, he will have to strengthen its pro-China diplomacy.
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Suga made a name for himself as chief cabinet secretary. At the same time, he was the minister in charge of reducing the burden on Okinawa for hosting US military bases, and he pushed for the return of part of the land used for the US military’s Northern Training Area. It was also his decision for Japan to acquire Mageshima island in Kagoshima for US aircraft carrier landing practice. When Suga visited Washington in May last year, he was warmly welcomed by both US Vice-President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
In July, the United Arab Emirates, a strong ally of the US, launched a mission to Mars from Japan. Japan is in negotiations to export arms to India and others, but these plans will only be realised if Tokyo maintains a close alliance with Washington.
At the same time, as part of Abenomics, Japan has a policy aim of boosting tourism and increasing consumption by inbound tourists, which depend on having a good relationship with China.

Diplomacy is about preserving national interests. As prime minister, Shinzo Abe made the right move initiating dialogue with many other countries. Suga’s role is to implement his predecessor’s diplomacy. It is not easy, but his experience could help him succeed.

I first learned of his existence in a discussion in 1997 with then prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, who was pushing for a full-scale disposal of non-performing loans in Japan. Thus, Suga has had experience with reforms. He is a sober, reform-minded realist.

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