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The View | What if Donald Trump is a one-term president? Why three trade issues can wait
- America’s trade partners are closely watching the November presidential election
- Whether it is the WTO, China or carmakers, decision makers could be preparing for the possibility that the Trump administration will be voted out
Reading Time:4 minutes
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With four months to go until the US presidential election, current polls give presumptive Democratic challenger Joseph Biden a commanding lead over President Donald Trump. Although two weeks can be an eternity in politics, America’s trade partners are closely watching the race and some are preparing for the possibility that the Trump administration will be voted out in November.
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Trump’s sharply declining political fortunes have begun to impact the disposition of three important trade issues in particular.
First, leadership of the World Trade Organisation.
The current director general, Roberto Azevedo, will step down at the end of August, one year ahead of schedule. This has triggered an unexpected – and extremely critical – process to identify his successor. The WTO is fighting for its life and the next director general will either revitalise it or preside over its demise.
The selection process normally works on the basis of consensus rather than as a formal vote. The candidate list is gradually whittled down through a series of consultations with members, until it’s clear that a single candidate can garner unanimous support.
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Eight candidates have thrown their hats into the ring, and the hope is to have a director general ready to step into the role in September. If a consensus cannot be reached, one of the four deputy directors general may take over as an interim caretaker.
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