Marco Vicenzino

Opinion | US-China rivalry will shape post-coronavirus world order while India and the EU struggle to keep pace

Greater danger and fragmentation are expected as Russia keeps its place at the table of great powers, while Turkey and other regional powers vie for influence

India must upgrade its diplomacy and accelerate its regional engagement and integration or it risks being consigned to long-term secondary status

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Marco Vicenzino

Published: 3:00am, 13 Jun 2020Updated: 9:13pm, 13 Oct 2020

As the post-pandemic global order emerges, fragmentation looms large across the geopolitical landscape. The US-China rift will widen as Beijing confronts American global influence and Asian neighbours head-on while exploiting weaknesses in Europe and much of the developing world.

Unlike the Cold War, the new geopolitical structure is not marked by a binary US-Soviet divide with clearly-defined camps. Friends and foes often cross traditional lines for short-term economic interest, political gain and convenience. Although the United States and China constitute the world’s two largest economies, rising regional powers are pursuing their own agendas, often against the interests of the world’s top two players.

The bottom line is that the new geopolitics reflects an increasingly complex and fragmented global landscape where uncertainty dominates a far more dangerous world. This is compounded by a generation of leaders worldwide largely short on long-term vision and strategic thinking.

Despite confronting the triple onslaught of a public health pandemic, economic crisis and spiralling racial tensions, America’s bipartisan consensus against China will endure any potential change of presidential administration or legislative leadership after the 2020 elections. Furthermore, this sentiment will be increasingly backed by broad-based popular support and justified by America’s foreign policy establishment.

Under President Xi Jinping, the Communist Party aggressively reinforces the perception of national unity at home and abroad. This was recently underlined at China’s annual parliamentary gathering. Apart from quelling domestic dissent, the party is actively exerting enormous diplomatic and economic pressure on overseas criticism.

02:37

WHO members including China back investigation of UN body’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic

China recently imposed punitive tariffs on Australia after it successfully led efforts for a majority vote at the World Health Organisation for an international inquiry into Covid-19’s origins and global response. Fundamentally, China wants Australia and other Pacific nations to recognise its regional supremacy in both words and actions.