Yi Fuxian

Opinion | Coronavirus’ huge hidden cost: millions of unborn babies across the world

There’s no denying that China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea have done an impressive job of keeping Covid-19 death tolls low

But they, and others, are likely to have declining fertility rates, which will cost their economies dearly down the road

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A baby with a face shield waits to board a plane at an airport in Wuhan on May 23. Photo: Kyodo News via AP

Yi Fuxian

Published: 3:00am, 4 Jun 2020Updated: 4:35am, 4 Jun 2020

Covid-19 has killed over 380,000 people across the globe, including 100,000 in the United States. A less obvious implication is that the virus may take a heavy toll on new births.

The lockdown measures and travel bans imposed by many governments around the world are expected to send the global economy into deep recession, making people less willing to marry or have children.

The younger generation, facing dim economic and job prospects, is likely to postpone or reconsider marriage and childbirth, which will lead to a sharp long-term decline in the fertility rate.

There are historical lessons here. In the US, the Great Depression reduced the fertility rate to 2.17 children per woman in 1933 from 2.66 in 1928, while the Great Recession has contributed to a decline in the past decade the number of children per American woman sank to 1.71 in 2019, down from 2.12 in 2007.

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China faces demographic challenge as birth rate drops despite government efforts

In Japan, the first oil shock and the bursting of the asset price bubble triggered two recessions, and the fertility rate fell from 2.14 in 1973 to 1.26 in 2005. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the number of births shrank in Russia as the economy soured, and the fertility rate dipped from 1.89 in 1990 to 1.16 in 1999.

The impact of the coronavirus on births could have deep social and economic implications for decades. Coronavirus policies intended to save lives should be implemented in two directions: they should not just prevent deaths from Covid-19 but also encourage people to have children despite the coronavirus-induced recession.

Opinion | Coronavirus’ huge hidden cost: millions of unborn babies across the world

There’s no denying that China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea have done an impressive job of keeping Covid-19 death tolls low But they, and others, are likely to have declining fertility rates, which will cost their economies dearly down the road

There’s no denying that China, Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea have done an impressive job of keeping Covid-19 death tolls low

But they, and others, are likely to have declining fertility rates, which will cost their economies dearly down the road