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Opinion | Beijing is getting tough on the democracy movement, but at what cost to Hong Kong?
- Beijing has recognised that, under the current conditions, it can’t keep Hong Kong’s opposition forces under control
- Something has to give, and that something is China’s promise to grant Hong Kong civil liberties and universal suffrage
Reading Time:4 minutes
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It’s not so much that the West or the global economy has decided Hong Kong is no longer viable. It’s Beijing that has decided it would rather have a passive territory under its control than continue to live with the current level of opposition and unrest.
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From the arrests of 15 leading members of the pan-democratic camp and the rumours floating around about the enactment of national security and national anthem legislation, to the attempts to argue that mainland interference in Hong Kong’s internal politics is somehow beyond the constitutional constraints of the Basic Law, all signs suggest things are going to get much worse and, perhaps, quite quickly.
Beijing has recognised that, under the current conditions, it cannot keep Hong Kong’s young people and opposition forces under control. Something has got to give, and that something is the promises China made in the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law that it would grant Hongkongers the freedom to protest in large numbers and would eventually let them all vote in elections.
Beijing knows full well that renewed efforts to enact Article 23 will trigger societal resistance and more violence, yet it has decided it is time to act.
Several years ago, Wang Zhenmin – former dean of Tsinghua Law School, and then head of legal affairs of the central government’s liaison office – told a meeting of the Hong Kong Political Science Association that, in light of Occupy Central in 2014, Beijing would no longer brook civil disobedience.
Well, it got much more than civil disobedience in 2019, when the Hong Kong government introduced a since-withdrawn extradition bill that would have allowed fugitives to be transported back to the mainland. But Beijing’s patience is over, and it will no longer tolerate large-scale violence on national soil.
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