Opinion | Coronavirus pandemic may sow the seeds of political revolutions as lockdowns drag on and food supply chains are tested
- The absence of critical health care coupled with food insecurity in highly indebted poor countries could set off social and political unrest
- People from the developed world may find they suddenly have something fundamental in common with their developing world brethren – survival
Among the plethora of risks the global economy is experiencing as a result of Covid-19, the potential for rising social and political unrest is lurking just beneath the surface.
That has not been the subject of much public focus since the pandemic began, but as the virus spreads rapidly through more nations, civil disobedience and associated violence is becoming a greater concern.
Although not all of these countries publish data on the number of intensive care unit beds that exist, a 2015 study from the US National Library of Medicine noted that seven African countries each had 10 or fewer such beds. Of the 13 African countries addressed in the study, Tanzania had the highest number of ICU beds, at 50. Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda each had about 30.
Similar statistics are undoubtedly true among most of the world’s poorest countries. Although global aid organisations will surely donate additional equipment to these countries as the virus progresses, the acute demand for ICU beds and personal protective equipment will surely outstrip supply by a wide margin.
Combining the absence of critical care capabilities with food insecurity could produce a combustible mix. The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organisation recorded significant spikes in the price of food in 2008 and 2011, which corresponded with rising political violence in countries throughout Africa and the Middle East.
