Joshua M. Zimmerman

Opinion | Asia has gained some perspective on the coronavirus. Europe and the US should too

Western governments should be framing a message of caution, not cancelling events, shutting everything down and feeding panic. If markets collapse, poverty will kill more people than the coronavirus

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A boy reaches for the spring flower buds at the Summer Palace in Beijing, on March 11, as tourist attractions reopen in China. We now know that Covid-19, while serious, is nowhere near as bad as Sars, Mers or Ebola. Photo: Simon Song

Joshua M. Zimmerman

Published: 7:00pm, 15 Mar 2020Updated: 8:12pm, 15 Mar 2020

Doctors and epidemiologists insist that we do not yet know much about Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes the Covid-19 disease, which from a scientific standpoint is certainly true. But government leaders and policymakers do not have the luxury of waiting until all the facts can be gathered before making difficult decisions. Like poker players, they must weigh the risks in a game of incomplete information.

But incomplete information is not no information:

We know Covid-19 spreads rapidly, often despite border controls.
But the virus does not appear to spread nearly as rapidly in hot, humid climates. Compare the numbers for Indonesia, Thailand and India (not to mention the almost total absence of Covid-19 in Africa) with those for South Korea and northern Europe. This suggests that as the northern hemisphere warms up over the coming months, the virus’ march may slow down (while the southern hemisphere’s worst days may lie ahead).
It is very clear that the old and the sick are far more likely to need a respirator or die than the young and healthy. That does not mean younger, healthy people will not die – every distribution has a tail.
The mortality rate is likely to go down as more data comes in. The numerator – deaths – is usually pretty solid data. Most deaths are investigated by a pathologist. Meanwhile, the denominator – confirmed cases – is almost certainly massively under-reported because of inadequate testing, asymptomatic patients, self-quarantining and other factors.

Add all this together, and Covid-19 is certainly a very serious threat to global health, but it is not the severe acute respiratory syndrome, it is not the Middle East respiratory syndrome (Mers), it is not Ebola, it is not even measles. Yet governments, policymakers, the press and markets are treating it as if it were.

There is a massive mismatch between the actual threat and the perceived threat, which is spawning market turmoil, needless anxiety and hysterical reactions. This is becoming more obvious to those of us in Asia who first confronted this virus more than two months ago and made the mistake of hoarding toilet rolls and rice but have since gained some perspective. We can only pity our friends in the United States and Europe as they panic and stumble.

The number of confirmed cases in the US stands at fewer than 2,000 in a population of 330 million. Even if confirmed cases rise 1,000-fold in the coming weeks before the weather warms, the total number of Covid-19 deaths will be (sorry to be cold-hearted) statistically insignificant. From a mortality standpoint, guns, highway deaths and eating habits should rank as much higher priorities in the US.

What should Western governments be doing? Framing is everything. The message should be: “A new seasonal flu-like disease has been detected. The number of confirmed cases so far is quite small. For most children and adults, the symptoms will be indistinguishable from the common cold. However, certain vulnerable groups, including the elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions, should take strict precautions, including social distancing. Everyone should practise good hygiene and wash their hands frequently.” That’s it.